Is the U.S. economy in good shape right now?
U.S. Treasury yields hit two-decade highs and oil returned to about $105 a barrel this week amid renewed inflation fears and a stock market slide.
Discussion (5)
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Pretty good stock market but only because of AI spending. Inflation still too high. Jobs market OK but certainly not robust. Bond yields reaching for the stars. Uncertainties wherever you look. It feels to me like an economy deciding between a correction and a recession.
Feels very mixed right now. While jobs and growth numbers aren't bad, there so much uncertainty now given the war, tariffs, AI, midterms. Very unsettling times right now, much of it self-induced (i.e., Trump-induced). Feeling Trump fatigue and looking forward to getting through this phase.
Who the hell downvoted this? Man (or woman) up and articulate what you find wrong with dagman's comment.
I didn't but it probably should be down voted. I can't think of a single indicator that is in good shape. The only reason the, "job growth numbers" "aren't bad" is by ignoring the participation rate. https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm At the same time we are seeing an energy shock the likes of which we haven't had since the 70s. ie the last time we had an unwinable quagmire war leading to stagflation Similarly the stock market is currently propped up on circular financing. That, "AI spending", is money borrowed from Peter to pay Paul to rent compute time from Peter in Paul's facility that hasn't been built yet from parts no one has or can afford. There's no actual profit or growth here just cascading debt
I think you missed both dagman's and my point. Neither of us is celebrating the economy. I suspect that the sharp drop in participation rate owes to Trump's mass deportations. I don't disagree with any of your indictments of the Trump administration, certainly the most corrupt government in a century and the most incompetent ever. But the fact remains that GDP is OK, equities markets are doing well, we don't have mass unemployment, and inflation is lower than it seems like it should be. At the same time it feels like the economy is walking on the edge of a cliff.