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I have opinions on many things, but I lack the information to form an informed opinion on this. I use Claude daily and find it powerful and useful. I am intrigued by the possibility of AGI. But I am also vaguely cognizant of the risks. My analysis is that AI will ultimarely profit the Sam Altmans and their allies, at everone else's expense. But that is a different issue than the question posed here. Whether or not we pause development, someone will forge ahead. It seems wired into the species. We're much better at can we than should we.
Agreed. I don't feel like there's a clear answer here. We can't let authoritarian countries get ahead, but we can't let ourselves advance beyond our ability to control it. All considered, though, I think the risk of the former outweighs the risk of the latter.
I think if the American companies slow down Chinese companies will make less progress. This is because their progress depends on distillation techniques applied to the latest frontier models of American companies. That means a pause creates less risk that the Chinese will establish a lead.
While that may be true today, I'm not sure that'll be true tomorrow. My fear is that underrates their capabilities.
Trump calls these safety risks a hoax, while leaders of all the AI frontier companies are emphatically warning of the serious consequences and need for action. Who do you believe?
Whoever gets to recursive self-improving AI first will be at a distinct, and likely permanent, advantage. Slowing the pace is ideal, but the big challenge is ensuring everyone complies. We have to try, but I'm not optimistic.